Romania's economic growth over the next few years will bring the GDP back to the 2008 level after the 7.2% drop in 2009. It will not happen any sooner than 2012, though.
Romania will not offset the economic decline caused by the crisis any sooner than 2012, GDP growth forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveal, but bank analysts are more optimistic and see the GDP in euros reverting to the 2008 level in 2011, partly because of the stronger RON. IMF anticipates the Gross Domestic Product to go up by 1. 3% this year, by 4.7% next year and by 5.7% in 2012.
Therefore, from a GDP of 136.8 billion euros in 2008, Romania will reach a 133.9 billion-euro GDP in 2011 and will offset the losses from the crisis period in 2012, when it reaches 145 billion euros. Depending on the exchange rate estimates used in calculating GDP for the coming years, Romania could reach the 2008 level as soon as 2011, a scenario thought to be attainable by the chairman of the National Forecasting Commission, Ion Ghizdeanu.
RBS, ING and Raiffeisen Bank analysts expect the economy to revert to the pre-crisis level until the end of 2011.
Analysts of Erste Group, BCR's majority shareholder, are more sceptical and believe that Romania will not reach the pre-crisis GDP level any sooner than 2012, although their 2010 GDP growth forecast stands at 1.9%, significantly higher than IMF's, and at 3% for 2011.
Source: www.zf.ro (05 March 2010)